I have watched India’s bond market from the sidelines over the years, bewildered at how the enthusiasm in the Indian financial community fails to translate into concrete price action in the markets.
Forgive me for adding to the slush-pile of comment on the newly installed Donald Trump administration, but I think it’s justified. I doubt that any investor, whether private or institutional, can afford not to have their eyes on the ball when it comes to the potential for the latest executive order from the White House to stymie their otherwise rational assessment of global capital markets.
It wasn’t so long ago that Mongolia was the darling of the international capital markets. The country’s stratospheric economic growth – it hit 17.5% in 2011, the highest in the world that year – and its frontier market credentials made it second to none as a must-have investment.
Things are looking up in the Asian loan market. I spoke on the phone last week with a veteran loan banker, an old friend, who informed me over the background noise of a bar in Hong Kong’s Lan Kwai Fong that syndicated lending is back in business after a lull of around two years - using rather colourful language that might have emerged from the mouth of the newly elected American president.
In the face of formidable uncertainties this year, investors may still seek the comfort of fixed income, says Dilip Parameswaran*
If facts no longer matter, investors are in for a whole new challenge, says Jonathan Rogers
The frenzy of infrastructure projects in both China and the US is paving the way for another financial crisis, says Jonathan Rogers.
In China, the invisible hand of the market is far weaker than the very obvious hand of the government, which likes to deliver a slap now and again to put participants back in line.
Indonesia has a lot going for it these days. At a time of regional economic slowdown, it is forecast to grow north of 5% this year, with investment spending up by 13%. Interest rates were cut six times by a cumulative 150bp in 2016, yet inflation languishes at the bottom of the 3%–5% official target range. A successful tax amnesty has lessened pressure on public finances and a large chunk of this year’s offshore borrowing needs has been pre-funded.