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Wednesday, 17 January 2018

Comment and Opinion

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  • Jonathan Rogers

    The Great Moderation is back

    Is the second round of the Great Moderation upon us? You will recall that this refers to the period from the mid-1980s to 2007, when the United States went through a period of low-volatility growth and low inflation. That period encompassed the longest period of economic expansion since the Second World War.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    In the fast lane in the Philippines

    Almost exactly two years ago in this column I predicted that Rodrigo Duterte would gain the Philippines presidency. His sharp-shooting style captured the same zeitgeist that propelled Donald Trump to the top job in America, and he correctly judged the desire of Filipinos for a break with the technocratic, low-key incumbency of Noynoy Aquino.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Mixed forecast for India's solar ambitions

    There’s a breathless enthusiasm for renewable energy in India. And why not? The case is unimpeachable – both from India’s promises when it signed the COP21 Paris agreement on climate change two years ago and its need to reduce a gaping energy deficit.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    China's outbound frenzy is real - and it's scary

    I’m in Beijing as I write this, enjoying my first trip to a city which I had somehow managed to avoid for professional reasons - my full-time gig didn’t warrant a visit - until a freelance opportunity presented itself.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    The sweet smell of Chinese bonds

    Donald Trump’s recent visit to China brought with it all the symbolism of the new world order. America, a country in terminal decline, stood in an overcoat in the Forbidden City and gushed failure from every pore. Trump talked up his business deals and lambasted his enemies, but abandoned his anti-China rhetoric and still came away with few real concessions.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Red flags are waving in China credit

    Every financial commentator would like to claim they called the top of the market - the moment when everything went nuts; the big ask that investors swallowed whole, only to find themselves nursing the wounds of extreme market excess months later.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    The plan behind China's latest ornament

    China’s first sovereign bond in over a decade poses an obvious question: “What was that all about?” There was a sense of deja vu about the US$2bn two-tranche Global, in that it ticked all the superlative boxes that we have come to expect from a rare sovereign issuer in Asia. But the only element that constrains rampant grandstanding around the deal is the feeling that the issuer could have filled its boots to the max.

  • Triple A for stage management

    While the world’s eyes were fixated on Beijing last week to witness Xi Jinping coronation for a second (and possibly not last) five-year term as president, China’s Ministry of Finance was putting on a spectacular show of its own in Hong Kong with the country’s first sale of US dollar-denominated bonds in 13 years.

  • Modi fires his Brahmastra

    With one bound they were free. At least, that seemed to be the judgement of stock market investors who bid up the shares of Indian public sector banks as much as 50% last week, after Narendra Modi’s government conjured an unexpected US$32bn bank recapitalisation plan. The sheer scale of the effort came as a shock: the two-year, Rs2.11trn initiative dwarfs the Rs700bn that the government had previously committed to inject (over four years) in state-owned banks.

  • Jonathan Rogers

    Bringing ESG to bear on credit

    I spoke late last week to a rather charming fellow in Hong Kong who has just joined index provider MSCI as vice president of ESG research.

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